Friday, March 13, 2009

Here we go again...

Just wanted to log back in and keep updated on the action that's been happening lately. I just recently quit my job at Discover and have started to grind my way through the B&M games at Casino Arizona. Although 4/8 LHE isn't really a lucrative game, I'm setting a goal for anywhere between $50-$100 a day a session to get started. A really nitty goal, I might add, but fortunately for me my expenses are low enough that this goal can still get me to the next limit by next month, or at least start opening up my bankroll, as well as my hand ranges I guess.
My goal is to ultimately get to a $4000 BR before moving up to 6/12 and taking shots at the 8/16 game as well. This should all happen within a month or so. Of course, when moving up with the proper bankroll by that time, I should also be expecting at least $200-$300 each session. All in about a month.
So for this month, I'm gonna nit n' grind, and sweat out every hand like it's my life. Good luck me. Peace.

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Been a while...

Looks like I'll be getting back in business here in a while, as I've been working for the past couple of months and slowly building up a bankroll to make a deposit online and start grinding out the micros for a good couple months before moving up and eventually staring down the 1/2 - 5/10NL games on Full Tilt, and branching out eventually to other sites. But for now, I'll start messing around with .10/.25 and .25/.50NL 6max games at FTP.
For a couple days prior, I had some sizable wins, looking at some quick sessions making $40 - $100 within a quick 1 or two hours, only to have my game trampled on, sabotaged by my own bad play, tilt, and thinking. Seems that this game never lets you get any leeway.
So anyhow... gotta plug up some major leaks in my game. I think I can harness a fairly aggressive style and make a consistent profit at the game. The trouble is when I get overconfident and use my amassed stack to bully a villain who obviously has my number and calls down with second pair. The question is: How much of a time frame am I willing to give myself to make this thing happen? Well, let's look at the options.

First of all, I'm working at a telemarketing company humping a $12.50/hr job (probably $9/hr after taxes), and am looking to be going nowhere soon unless I either get a degree (which is an option), or get it on with poker.
With a degree, most likely in fitness, I can look to be a personal trainer and probably still hump a menial salaried job that would get me to nowhere close to where I want to get to.
Or... I can get serious with poker. Now, to be completely frank, poker as a full-time career is NOT sexy. At ALL. But, there are enough players I hear of who make enough money a year that it affords them time to travel and pursue other hobbies and adventures. Now THAT's what I want.

Which leads me to asking the next question: How MUCH would it take to live the dream life that I want?

I don't know. I keep on saying that $200K/year is a great salary. So... we'll start with that number. For mathematic's sake, let's figure $200k/365 days a year = $547/day needs to be made playing poker. If I could play 4 tables and make an average $136 per table, I could pull that off. But that's assuming I want to play 4 tables every single day and pull off that sort of play. So I'll adjust.

Let's say that at the 1/2NL tables I can safely pull in $20/hr there... 4 tables... $80/hr... 4 hours a day... $320/day. 4 days a week... $1,280/week. $5,120/month. Expenses? Less than $2,000. So I can pull in and save $3100 to my bankroll a month, and would have $10K (my required BR to go pro, not including 6 months of expenses - an extra $12K) within 4 months. I can save up and be a bonafide pro within 1 year, if I can commit to making $320/day for a year. 4 hours a day, 4 days a week. How does this happen?

They say that in order to play a Limit, you want to have at least 50 buy-ins (a buy-in is 50x the BB). So... to play .25/.50NL I need $1,250. To play .50/1.00NL I need $2500.

This is all possible to get me jumpstarted and I could work my way up from there. Question is, how do I want to make this happen? I'm going to do this... every paycheck I get, I'm putting away $200 to put toward my BR. If I'm getting a paycheck every two weeks, I can expect $1,200 within 3 months. Boom. Get started. Grind out .25/50NL making $100/day, 4 days a week... $400/week x 4 weeks = $1,600 in 1 month. Add that to my $1,250 starting BR, and I have $2,850. I'll be at .50/1NL 4 months from now.

Let's say I make $200/day from .50/1NL, 4 days a week... $800/week x 4 weeks = $3,200/month. Now, at $3,200/month working 16 hours a week, I can safely say that I'll be swiftly on my way to quitting. Let's see, by the end of month 5, I'll have $3,200 + $2,850 = $6,050 in my BR.

Month 6 = $9,250
Month 7 = $12,450
Month 8 = $15,650
Month 9 = $18,850
Month 10 = $22,050
Month 11 = $23,250
Month 12 = $25,450

So this is where it gets fun. After a year of preliminary poker, I'll be able to tuck away $12,000 for 6 months of expenses. From there, I can quit work, and with a ton of experience under my sleeves (poker), I can put in 16 hours a week with a starting BR of $13,450. That's a roll good enough to grind away at .50/1NL, or to move up to 1/2, where I would expect at least $400/day from there = $1,600/wk. Or $6,400/month.

Sounds like a hell of a plan.

So from here on out I'll start posting about how I plan to get the initial $1,250BR in order to hit the .25/.50NL tables. Wish me luck. Or whatever craziness you may also want to mutter.

Peace.

Monday, October 20, 2008

First hand coaching session: $65/hr.

Or, in other opinions... that was tonight's loss rate. Fortunately it only took me 4 hours to drill this into my head. Unfortunately... it took my whole disposable bankroll. Ugh. Thanks coach. No really. Thanks. You're expensive.


KEY LESSONS:


1. Table selection: I sat down at a table that didn't look too exciting from the outset. The table was 4 handed, with mostly everybody hunched over their cards. The body language wreaked of "this game is not lively". The average chip stack was definitely less than 2 buy-ins, so this wasn't a table where we were deep - chances are, it would be a game where the rake would win the game. Looking back at all the time I've spent at B&M casinos, I don't think I ever did too well at these types of tables. It was really only at tables where there were at least 3-5 deepstacked players, where I was able to grind out a sizable winrate. Ahhh, the moment of clarity.

It's not good to sit down at a table like this. When you buy-in, and look around and everybody who's already seated has just about the same amount of chips in front of them as you do - BEWARE. This table is going to be defined by nothing but limped pots and a heavier reliance on who can luckbox the board more often - effectively making the game just as variance-ridden as any other game in the casino. You might as well try the slots. Get out of there IMMEDIATELY unless something changes dramatically within the next couple of orbits. Like, 2 (preferrably 3) more players sit down and buy-in with more than the minimum.

RULE OF THUMB: When at a supertight, shortstacked table, exit if you either lose 4 big bets or only get 1 big bet average for the first 2 orbits.


Note: Some guy came over about 2 hours into the game, way past when I was already internally aching to play at another table, but wasn't savvy enough to actually change tables because people at the table (dealer included) was veering me to stay. (Do you need to care what your opponents think of you anyway? Their motive's are selfish obviously. You need to look out for your own best interest in these situations.) He asked if the game was juicy - if it was loose. Nobody answered. He asks again. Some guy at the table says, "No man, it's tight." So, guy railing us just simply leaves.

Later, after I'm essentially busted, I walk around the cardroom, and happen to see the same guy, this time seated at the juiciest 4/8 table going on. OMG. This table was in the middle of a hand, 4 handed, a huge huge huge pot (bigger than what I ever saw at my table, except once), and literally everyone there had at LEAST 2-3 buyins. Gosh I was so jealous. Trouble is, I could've been there, and would've been satisfied if I had gotten my money in at a table like that. I was just too much of an idiot and didn't change tables, and be more selective as to what kind of game I want to sit down at.


2. Run of Cards: If you're card dead, QUIT. Which is what happened to me. Not only was my KQ, KJ, AJ, K10, pocket Jacks, pocket Queens not hitting the board or holding up, but the majority of cards I was dealt was simply duds. This happened majority of the time I spent at the table. And this was a sign to leave the table, as, on the other hand, lady to my left was lucking out everywhere, and left the table with probably 4 more buy-ins than she entered with in about 3 hours total.

Lesson: If you're card dead, and you inherently feel it, leave. If the table is a juicy game, you could stand up and take a walk, making sure not to let your emotions make bad decisions for you because of impatience. However, if you're both card dead AND the table is bunk, switch games and get out of that place.

3. Emotional circuitry: Though emotion could be bad if you're tilting, you still need to be able to feel the game. By the time I lost my first buy-in, I suddenly became indifferent. Partly because of bad luck. The other part was because I was plain and simply too lazy to be emotionally attached to the game, because I had lost faith. This probably cost me more than it should have. Whatever the circumstance, if your head and heart isn't in the game, it's just not worth it to play for the night. Take a breather and refocus your energy, or just stand up and quit. It's that important.



----------------------------------------------------------------


A few other spots to plug up:


- Keep focused on your player reads. You need to know when people left to act are telegraphing folds, raises, or flats.

- Pay more attention to opponent hand ranges, and from what position they're playing from.

- In tighter games, 3bets are bonafide strong hands. If you even THINK you're beat... you're usually right, and you've done a good job of this so far. The next step is actually folding those hands, and this is absolutely detrimental and critical to your success as a poker player. Fold 'em if you know it's the right move.

- Think harder than you ever have about the game. Not only will this allow you to be more engaged (and thus passing time faster), but you'll also find yourself a more profitable player guaranteed.

- Pot odds and position. CRITICAL. Do NOT play J9os from UTG. Pay attention to the action from late position. K10 is fair in a multiway pot, but if there are only 2 players in the pot, it's not worth entering in with, even if only against the blinds.

- Play YOUR game. Not anyone else's. You're a thinking player, and you take everything into consideration. This is how you make the game +EV. You CANNOT gamble it up and play the same marginal hands the next player is playing just because they're luckboxing the board. It just won't work out to your benefit on most sessions, so don't do it. If you make money grinding it up as a nit, then that's your place.


So, to recap: Table selection, Run of Cards, and think and feel harder about the game than you ever have.


Overview:


Time in: 9:00PM
Time out: 1:00AM
Total time: 4 hours
Total profit: -
Total loss: $260
Lossrate: - $65hr
Play rating: 6/10


Although tonight was a horrible fail, it still was a necessary obstacle to overcome on the path to being a winning poker player. Which is good to know. The game wasn't entirely unexploitable. There are still leaks to plug up. The game could absolutely be beaten, consistently in my opinion - but only if you bring your A game to the table every night, and never let the environment effect your absolute focus and hunger to win. Without this, you're minimizing the profit you should be winning. Next shot is probably not going to come around too soon, but, before you get back in the pits again, make sure you're running on all 12 cylinders.



Good luck.

Friday, October 17, 2008

So... today it starts!!

Today I played the game. After a fair amount of practice at FTP playing LHE at the highest play chip stakes, I took my game to Casino Arizona and played some 4/8 LHE for what would be the beginning of my shot at the game. Kinda stuck in a corner though, as all I have to my bankroll is $500 and a hope that I could eek out enough initial wins to fan the flame with. $500. Wow. Everybody has a dream.
Anyways, it's Friday, and I made it down to the B&M at about 10AM, planning to play until 5PM, just before it got busy with all the Friday nighters. Turns out I stayed until 7:30PM, running the gammit of a rollercoaster 'til I eeked out a modest win of $20 (the dealers made more money than me today obviously, har har).
Some interesting hands that came up:

I'm in the SB with A9os and decide to open raise a limped pot with 4 players. Not the most lucrative hand to do it with, but both the LP and BTN players, I reasoned, would've raised with A10+. LP for sure always pumps pre with any random pocket pair, and the BTN has raised consistently with 109+, so I figured I might be ahead going to the flop. Dah well. All 3 villains flat.

Flop comes 932 rainbow, so I decide to lead out obviously. MP player, a really shoddy looking guy who ironically was wearing a CAZ windbreaker jacket, but seriously had the look like he was either a reeeeeeallly degen gambler, or a possible alchy (maybe both), flats me. This guy's hand selection is probably the worse I've ever seen, though, this night, he OWNED me in ways you'd never imagine. I think I ended up about 1 for 7 against this kid with 60/40s and 80/20s, him following me to the river and catching me with backdoors and runner runners like it's nobody's business. I had the sympathy of the table today. LP folds, BTN flats.
Turn's an A. Top two pair, I bet.
MP Maniac 2bets me, LP and BTN fold, and I'm already knowing what to expect at showdown, given this kid's inability to EVER fold baby connectors and suited FOUR GAPPERS. So, flat it is. BTN folds.
River 6.
Check/call it is, he knuckles 45offsuit. Nice dude. You're good. Really. You beat me with 6c3c with me flopping a set. You beat me with J8os when you runner runnered straight after I turned a set with a 467 flop. How you stayed in the hand by the turn was absolutely horrid.

I digress. Learned some good lessons today, and, although I only made a measly $2/hr, I seriously think that I can beat this game if I can plug up some leaks. Hence the blog.

For starters, I need to trust my reads, and not pay off every hand that check raises me when I'm holding top pair only. Huge spewfest, I probably lost a total of about $120 just calling too light against known nits. So, keep better mental notes on villain styles. Yeah, it was probably a bad idea calling with 4d7d against a 3bet to the dome from MP facing 2 known supertight nits. The hell am I thinking there? PATIENCE. No need to try and outplay your opponent, unless you have a really (80% positive) read that villain is 1. Not a spewtard calling station who calls with 2nd pair or bottom straight 2. Respectful of your table image. KNOW YOUR OPPONENT, TRUST YOUR READS, AND STAY PATIENT!!!

Best example of this today was some guy who sat to my left at a table full of regs possibly, who hadn't played 1 hand for about 1:30 hours. Splash pot comes to the table, and after facing a couple raises, this guy caps, and fires barrels the whole way to showdown holding Ladies as they hold up. Total pot? At LEAST $280. One hand. Later he told me that there was only one hand he mucked that was actually a winning hand prior to that hand. Nice hand, sir. Ship ship. In that 1:30 hours though, I gained, and lost, at least a hundred. Winner's tilt isn't good.

So, to recap:

Time in: 10AM
Time out: 7:30PM
Total time: 9.5 hours
Total profit: $20
winrate: $2/hr

Monday I'm heading back to the dungeon. Now that the jitters are out of the way, and after getting a good lesson in what should've been at least a +$200 session, I'm looking forward to getting it in with more +EV.

'Til later.